It is hard to talk about modern baseball prospects without getting your hopes up.
You see the radar gun numbers, you see the high school dominance, and you assume the best.
But with Shane Baz, it’s been a different story.
It’s not just about waiting for him to arrive; it’s about wondering when he will finally arrive without getting hurt first.
From what I’ve seen covering the game, there is a special kind of frustration in following a player like Baz.
He has the stuff of an ace, the pedigree of a number-one pick, but he has been sidelined by injuries more often than he has been on the mound.
It’s a tough narrative, but one that is essential to understand when looking at the Tampa Bay Rays’ rotation depth and the broader MLB landscape.
The Rise: No.
1 Overall Pick and High Expectations
Let’s rewind to 2017.
The Pittsburgh Pirates selected Shane Baz with the 12th overall pick in the MLB Draft.
Now, people remember picks differently depending on who you ask, but Baz was widely considered a top-tier talent with a fastball that could reach the low-90s or even high-90s consistently.
He didn’t just have a good fastball, though.
He had a curveball that looked like it was broken off his hand.
At the time, it felt like he was the future of the Pirates’ rotation.
But baseball is a cruel sport, and for a young pitcher, it often starts before the contract does.
You have to build your arm up through the minors, and that is where the first crack in the armor appeared.
The First Setback: 2019 and Tommy John Surgery
So, here is the sad part.
Baz made his MLB debut in 2021.
He looked electric.
His strikeout rate was through the roof, and he looked like a guy who belonged.
But then, just a few innings into the 2022 season, he felt something pop. And this is where things get interesting.
It was the UCL in his throwing elbow.
The same ligament that so many pitchers have to replace.
He underwent Tommy John surgery for the first time.
For a young pitcher, this is a massive hurdle.
Most guys work their way back for a year or two. But there’s a catch.
Baz had to do it while adjusting to a new team environment.
It really put a damper on his early career development.
Most people forget how fast he was coming up before that injury.
The Second Setback: 2023 and The Trade
He started throwing in 2023, trying to get back to the majors.
It seemed like he was on track. Here’s the interesting part.
But then, mid-season, the news dropped again.
It wasn’t a new injury, but it was arguably worse.
Tests revealed a stress fracture in his forearm and more elbow inflammation.
The doctors told him he needed a second Tommy John surgery.
This is the part that keeps me up at night, thinking about the odds.
To come back from the first one, only to need the second one a year later? That is incredibly rare.
It makes you question the longevity of the arm from the very beginning.
But the Pirates organization did the right thing.
They didn’t rush him, and they eventually traded him to the Tampa Bay Rays in a blockbuster deal involving Austin Meadows.
What His Mechanics Tell Us (And What They Don’t)
When you look at Shane Baz pitching mechanics, you see a lot of potential.
He generates a lot of power from his lower half.
Some analysts say that while his delivery is powerful, the stress it puts on the elbow during the landing is what ultimately led to the injuries.
Others argue that the injuries were just bad luck.
It’s hard to say definitively.
But from a fan’s perspective, the key is efficiency.
The more he has to overcompensate for an injury or a mechanical flaw, the higher the risk of the next one. And this is where things get interesting.
The Rays are known for their training staff, which is good news for Baz.
They don’t just patch players up; they try to build them better.
The Tampa Bay Rays Factor
Why the Rays? Why not somewhere else? Well, the Rays are built on pitching. Now think about that for a second.
They have a system that thrives on reclamation projects and development.
They have the resources to manage his workload carefully, ensuring he doesn’t throw 100 pitches in a Triple-A game just to prove a point.
For Baz, this move is critical.
Staying in Pittsburgh might have added pressure he didn’t need.
Joining a fresh organization means a fresh start.
He doesn’t have to live up to the ghosts of the past two years in Pittsburgh; he just has to focus on being healthy.
And honestly, that is the only thing that matters right now.
Contract Status and Future Value
When you look at the Shane Baz contract situation, it’s complicated.
He is still under club control for several years, but his value is capped by the risk.
If he stays healthy for the next two seasons, his trade value will skyrocket. And this is where things get interesting.
If he gets hurt again, his value becomes a gamble.
From a salary perspective, he isn’t making big league money yet, but the potential is there.
If he becomes an ace for the Rays, he could be looking at a massive extension down the road.
But right now, the contract is just a number on a paper.
The only metric that matters is innings pitched.
How to Follow His Recovery
If you are like me and you check injury reports every single morning, you know how stressful it is.
Keeping an eye on his rehab progress is the best way to gauge his return.
Most reports suggest he is progressing well, throwing from multiple distances, but the team will likely take it slow.
Oddly enough,
I recommend checking the official Rays roster page regularly for updates on his rehab status.
It gives you a better idea of when you might actually see him in a big league uniform again.
Final Thoughts: The Promise of the 2017 Class
Shane Baz represents the hope of the 2017 draft class. Now think about that for a second.
It’s a class filled with stars—Brewer, Kjerstad, etc.—but Baz is the one with the high-velocity arm that we just *know* should be on the mound right now.
It’s a shame we have to wait.
But baseball is a marathon, not a sprint.
If Baz can stay healthy, he could be the missing piece for the Rays’ rotation for years to come.
Until then, we wait.
We watch the rehab updates, and we hope that this time, the elbow holds up. Oddly enough,
Because when he is healthy, he is one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game.
And that is worth the wait.
Image source: pexels.com
Recommended Resources for Baseball Fans
But there’s a catch.
Keep checking back for updates on Shane Baz’s return.
It’s going to be a fun ride when he gets back out there.
Image source credit: pexels.com